Where are we today
In my opinion we are at or near the peak of a cycle, meaning the surety industry could be on the verge of tightening up. Let me outline the reasons. After the downturn in the early 2000’s, the surety industry got back to basics and exhibited incredible discipline in their underwriting. As a result, the industry returned to profitability around 2004. Their discipline helped them get through the Great Recession relatively unscathed, and the industry embarked on a 20 year run of very profitable results.
The profitability of the surety industry attracted insurance companies to enter into the surety business, and the number of competitors in the market expanded dramatically. Over the past 20 years, there have been more than 20 new sureties enter the California market. Imagine if you had 20 new competitors!
When there is more competition in a credit industry like surety, the natural response is for the new competitors to lower their underwriting standards in order to gain market share. It’s similar to contractors new to a market bidding cheap to get work. The formula doesn’t end well in either scenario, but it can take time to work itself out.
One factor that enabled so many of the new sureties to enter the market is they were able to buy reinsurance fairly inexpensively with low “deductibles”. Reinsurance is insurance that sureties buy so they don’t have to absorb an entire loss. When you step back and think about it, if you can buy insurance for very little cost and almost all of the losses are absorbed by your reinsurance company, you can be much more aggressive in your underwriting – writing bigger bonds for contractors who would not have typically qualified in the past.
Parties don’t last forever
The reinsurers have essentially given the surety industry a giant punch bowl and some sureties have over indulged to the point of having significant losses. These losses have mostly impacted the profitability of the reinsurers, and after losing money for the past several years, the reinsurers are taking the punch bowl away by raising the premiums they charge to the sureties and requiring the sureties to have more skin in the game by increasing the deductibles on their policies. It is largely believed these changes will start to cause sureties to tighten their underwriting, because they can no longer afford to have losses like they could for the past decade.
These changes in underwriting haven’t been totally noticeable to us yet, but it could be a more gradual shift. If there is a shock to the market causing extreme losses, a tightening by sureties could happen more abruptly.
What should contractors do?
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